The effect of a more strict 2014 DEA schedule designation for hydrocodone products on opioid prescription rates in the United States

Background: From 1999 to 2010, the annual number of US deaths due to opioid overdose increased about 400% as the number of opioids prescribed yearly also increased by approximately 400%. Over this period, hydrocodone combination products drove the opioid epidemic, as they became the most frequently prescribed medication in the United States. Our objective was to determine if the Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) 2014 policy change–which made it more difficult to prescribe hydrocodone combination products by moving them from Schedule III to Schedule II–reduced the total amount of opioid prescriptions as intended. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal analysis of the 10 most populous US states, beginning at the time each state began collecting data on opioid prescribing, and concluding at the end of 2016. The exposure was the DEA-mandated October 6, 2014 hydrocodone combination product schedule change. Results: After the DEA’s schedule change for hydrocodone combination products, the total number of opioids prescribed each year per 100 people did not substantially change in California, Florida, Michigan, or New York. Although prescription rates dropped for hydrocodone combination products (CA: 43.2, 35.0; MI: 66.8, 55.6; NY: 20.8, 15.1), the reduction was commensurately counteracted by increased rates for tramadol (CA: 0.2, 9.9; MI: 0.1, 17.3; NY: 0.0, 7.6) and oxycodone (CA: 8.7, 9.7; MI: 10.3, 11.9; NY: 18.1, 18.8). Surprisingly, the other 6 states assessed had no viable mechanism in place for assessing state-wide opioid prescription totals, routinely expunged collected data, or only instituted a reporting mechanism toward the end of our study. Conclusion: Total opioid prescriptions were relatively unchanged following the 2014 DEA-mandated schedule change, however, physicians did change their prescribing habits by substituting tramadol for hydrocodone combination products. This substitution of similar medications for hydrocodone suggests alternative approaches are needed to reduce total US opioid prescription rates. Additionally, the current lack of standardized prescription reporting by states makes detailed opioid prescription analysis alarmingly difficult and insufficient to guide policy or monitor the impact of policy changes.