TY - JOUR
T1 - Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance
AU - Pei, Sen
AU - Blumberg, Seth
AU - Vega, Jaime Cascante
AU - Robin, Tal
AU - Zhang, Yue
AU - Medford, Richard J.
AU - Adhikari, Bijaya
AU - Shaman, Jeffrey
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/4
Y1 - 2023/4
N2 - Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to develop real-time forecasting models for antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) have been absent. In this perspective, we discuss the utility of AMRO forecasting at different scales, highlight the challenges in this field, and suggest future research priorities. We also discuss challenges in scientific understanding, access to high-quality data, model calibration, and implementation and evaluation of forecasting models. We further highlight the need to initiate research on AMRO forecasting using currently available data and resources to galvanize the research community and address initial practical questions.
AB - Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to develop real-time forecasting models for antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) have been absent. In this perspective, we discuss the utility of AMRO forecasting at different scales, highlight the challenges in this field, and suggest future research priorities. We also discuss challenges in scientific understanding, access to high-quality data, model calibration, and implementation and evaluation of forecasting models. We further highlight the need to initiate research on AMRO forecasting using currently available data and resources to galvanize the research community and address initial practical questions.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85150612044&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85150612044&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3201/eid2904.221552
DO - 10.3201/eid2904.221552
M3 - Article
C2 - 36958029
AN - SCOPUS:85150612044
SN - 1080-6040
VL - 29
SP - 679
EP - 685
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases
IS - 4
ER -