Time-dependent cardiovascular treatment benefit model for lipid-lowering therapies

BACKGROUND: With the availability of new lipid-lowering therapy options, there is a need to compare the expected clinical benefit of different treatment strategies in different patient populations and over various time frames. We aimed to develop a time-dependent model from published randomized controlled trials summarizing the relationship between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering and cardiovascular risk reduction and to apply the model to investigate the effect of treatment scenarios over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cardiovascular treatment benefit model was specified with parameters as time since treatment initiation, magnitude of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction, and additional patient characteristics. The model was estimated from randomized controlled trial data from 22 trials for statins and nonstatins. In 15 trials, the new time-dependent model had better predictions than cholesterol treatment trialists’ estimations for a composite of coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke. In explored scenarios, absolute risk reduction ≥2% with intensive treatment with high-intensity statin, ezetimibe, and high-dose proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor compared with high-or moderate-intensity statin alone were achieved in higher-risk populations with 2 to 5 years of treatment, and lower-risk populations with 9 to 11 years of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The time-dependent model accurately predicted treatment benefit seen from randomized controlled trials with a given lipid-lowering therapy by incorporating patient profile, timing, duration, and treatment type. The model can facilitate decision making and scenario analyses with a given lipid-lowering therapy strategy in various patient populations and time frames by providing an improved assessment of treatment benefit over time.