Predictors of Adverse outcomes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus transitioning to adult care

Background:: The transition from pediatric to adult care is a vulnerable period for individuals with chronic diseases. We sought to identify risk factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) who have transitioned to adult care. Methods:: A retrospective analysis of cSLE patients was performed. Outcomes of interest were development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death and time to first hospitalization following final pediatric rheumatology visit. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were used. Results:: Of 190 patients with cSLE, 21 (11%) developed ESRD and 9 (5%) died following the final pediatric rheumatology visit. In logistic regression, public insurance, history of Child Protective Services involvement, and an unscheduled hospitalization during the final year in pediatric care were predictive of ESRD or death (odds ratio (95% confidence intervals (CI)) 6.7 (1.5–30.7), 6.6 (2.3–19.1), and 3.2 (1.3–8.3), respectively). Among 114 patients with healthcare utilization data, 53% had a hospitalization in adult care. In Cox regression analysis, a pediatric outpatient opioid prescription was associated with shorter time to adult hospitalization and White or Asian race was associated with longer time to adult hospitalization (hazard ratio (CI) 3.5 (1.7–7.0) and 0.1 (0.03–0.4), respectively). Conclusions:: Risks factors associated with poor outcomes in adult care amongst patients with cSLE include public insurance, history of Child Protective Services involvement, unscheduled care utilization in pediatric care, pediatric outpatient opioid prescription, Black race and Hispanic ethnicity. Efforts to improve long-term outcomes among patients with cSLE should focus on these populations.