Dynamic forecasts of survival for patients living with destination left ventricular assist devices: Insights from intermacs

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) improve outcomes in patients with end-stage heart failure and are increasingly implanted for destination therapy. We describe dynamic estimates of event-free survival with conditional survival probabilities in a destination therapy LVAD population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 8245 adult patients in INTERMACS (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) implanted with a continuous-flow destination therapy LVAD. The composite primary end point was death, device exchange or removal, or heart transplantation. Conditional survival probabilities were calculated and stratified by implantation characteristics and nonfatal adverse events experienced within the first year after implant. Probabilities of surviving an additional 1 to 3 years were numerically higher after longer prior event-free survival. INTERMACS profile 1, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, prior or concomitant surgery, and dialysis within 48 hours of implantation were associated with significantly lower event-free survival in the first year but did not impact event-free survival beyond then. For patients who experienced a nonfatal adverse event within the first year, subsequent 1-year conditional survival was lower than in the absence of that event for stroke (65% [95% CI, 57%–73%] versus 75% [95% CI, 73%–77%]; P<0.001), device-related infection (64% [95% CI 57%–71%] versus 76% [95% CI, 74%–78%]; P<0.001), and pump thrombosis or malfunction (64% [95% CI, 57%–70%] versus 76% [95% CI, 74%–78%]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Conditional survival in patients with destination therapy LVADs improves over time, even for patients with unfavorable implantation characteristics. However, LVAD-related complications including stroke, device-related infection, and pump thrombosis or malfunction have an enduring negative influence on dynamic estimates of long-term prognosis.