A biomarker-based score for risk of hospitalization for heart failure in patients with diabetes

David D. Berg, Stephen D. Wiviott, Benjamin M. Scirica, Thomas A. Zelniker, Erica L. Goodrich, Petr Jarolim, Ofri Mosenzon, Avivit Cahn, Deepak L. Bhatt, Lawrence A. Leiter, Darren K. McGuire, John P.H. Wilding, Per Johanson, Anna Maria Langkilde, Itamar Raz, Eugene Braunwald, Marc S. Sabatine, David A. Morrow

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations


OBJECTIVE Heart failure (HF) is an impactful complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to develop and validate a risk score for hospitalization for HF (HHF) incorporating biomarkers and clinical factor(s) in patients with T2DM. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We derived a risk score for HHF using clinical data, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), and N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) from 6,106 placebo-treated patients with T2DM in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53). Candidate variables were assessed using Cox regression. The strongest indicators of HHF risk were included in the score using integer weights. The score was externally validated in 7,251 placebo-treated patients in DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58). The effect of dapagliflozin on HHF was assessed by risk category in DECLARE-TIMI 58. RESULTS The strongest indicators of HHF risk were NT-proBNP, prior HF, and hsTnT (each P<0.001).AriskscoreusingthesethreevariablesidentifiedagradientofHHF risk (P-trend <0.001) in the derivation and validation cohorts, with C-indices of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.89) and 0.84 (0.81-0.86), respectively. Whereas there was no significant effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo on HHF in the low-risk group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.98 [95% CI 0.50-1.92]), dapagliflozin significantly reduced HHF in the intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk groups (HR 0.64 [0.43-0.95], 0.63 [0.43-0.94], and 0.72 [0.54-0.96], respectively). Correspondingly, absolute risk reductions (95% CI) increased across these latter 3 groups: 1.0% (0.0-1.9), 3.0% (0.7-5.3), and 4.4% (20.2 to 8.9) (P-trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated a risk score for HHF in T2DM that incorporated NTproBNP, prior HF, and hsTnT. The risk score identifies patients at higher risk of HHF who derive greater absolute benefit from dapagliflozin.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2573-2581
Number of pages9
JournalDiabetes care
Issue number11
StatePublished - Nov 1 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Advanced and Specialized Nursing


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